June 13, 2008: With a surprising 53.4 percent of the
vote, Irish opponents of the EU's Lisbon treaty have put a
damper on hopes to give the European Union a new internal
structure by January 1, 2009. The Lisbon treaty mandates a
majority vote system for most decisions of the EU Council of
Ministers and would create the new offices of EU President and
foreign minister. Ireland is the only member of the 27 nation
EU where a national referendum will decide whether the treaty
is ratified. In all other countries approval is expected since
the national parliament will decide the issue. Of the following
options, the Nice one is really no option at all.
• Continue operating under the Treaty of Nice:
If the Lisbon treaty is not ratified, the EU would continue to
operate under the Treaty of Nice, which took effect in 2003.
However, the current setup requires unanimous agreement on most
major decisions made within the EU. Some legal experts now
question whether the EU can even accept any new members under
the present arrangement. If they are correct, Croatia's entry
into the Union would be on hold for as long as the current
situation prevails. The Treaty of Nice is no option for
Europe's future.
• Agree on a new treaty: Another option
considered unlikely is the draft of a replacement for the
Lisbon treaty. The Lisbon treaty itself was the result of
compromise reached at the end of long and at times tense
negotiations conducted by German chancellor Angela Merkel last
year. At this point it seems very questionable whether EU
members could agree on yet another draft text.
• Ireland leaves the EU: Some analysts are
already calling on Ireland to leave the EU, especially if the
other 26 EU members ratify the Lisbon treaty. However, Ireland
has financial and economic advantages from its membership in
the EU. It is unlikely that the Irish would leave the EU
voluntarily, and just as unlikely that the EU would force
Ireland out. The latter move would require legal maneuvering
that might be difficult to achieve, since under the current
Nice treaty any new legal arrangement to oust Ireland would
required Ireland's own vote of approval.
• A special arrangement with Ireland: If the
other 26 EU members ratify the Lisbon treaty – which is
widely expected – the EU could offer Ireland special
"opt-out" provisions for those portions of the new treaty that
would otherwise require the Irish constitution to be amended.
Since the Irish referendum on ratification is only necessary
because of the need to amend the country's constitution,
"opt-out" provisions would mean that the Irish parliament could
ratify the treaty. A majority of the Irish parliament supports
the Lisbon treaty.
• A follow-up referendum in Ireland: In 2001
Irish voters initially rejected the treaty of Nice. A follow-up
referendum was held later, and pro-EU Irish voters turned out
in sufficient numbers to overturn the first referendum. EU
supporters are generally considered less likely to go to the
polls for a referendum, so mobilizing them will be a challenge
– though not insurmountable – for a later vote. A
follow-up referendum also means that all other 26 EU members
ratify the Lisbon treaty – which is widely expected.
• A "two-speed" Europe: If the proposed Lisbon
treaty fails, then the most likely option for the future will
be a "two-speed" Europe – the long discussed "core
Europe" made up of those EU members desiring closer political
integration. Existing EU provisions allow member countries to
forge ahead with agreements without requiring all EU members to
participate. Examples are the euro zone and the Schengen
treaty.
The "opt-out" and new referendum options are real possibilities
for getting the Lisbon treaty ratified after all. However, even
if the treaty should fail, the "core Europe" concept is a
viable option for the continent's future development,
which will eventually see ten nations or groups of
nations forming a short-lived political union.
