November 6, 2008: Yesterday European Union commissioner for enlargement Olli Rehn admonished France, Germany and Luxembourg not to block EU expansion by denying membership to new members. Rehn’s comments in Brussels accompanied the annual report on progress made by Turkey and seven Balkans states in implementing reform measures considered deemed necessary for membership by the EU.

Rehn reported that more progress was needed by all candidates. Croatia is the closest to completing requirements for membership and could complete them sometime next year. Serbia may receive official candidate status next year, opening the door for formal negotiations on membership – if it demonstrates satisfactorily that it is doing everything in its power to find war criminals from the 1990s Balkans war.

However, it seems that expansion is on hold for as long as the treaty of Lisbon is not ratified by all current EU members. France, Germany and Luxembourg have declared repeatedly that they will only support the addition of new members if the treaty is ratified. The Lisbon treaty is supposed to streamline the EU's decision-making process, eliminating the single vote veto right currently in effect. With the single vote veto, EU negogiations often become late-night bargaining sessions. The EU is already unwieldy with its 27 members and would be even more so if new members were added.

Following the rejection of the treaty by Irish voters earlier this year the outcome of the ratification process is clouded. In addition, legal challenges to the Lisbon treaty in the Czech Republic and Poland have further complicated matters.

"I hope this won't be used as an argument to delay the admission process for countries like Croatia that have made good progress," Rehn said in answering a question about the position of the three governments. He added, though, that the successful completion of negotiations does not mean immediate admission to the EU. Rehn emphasized that this factor could mean that the Lisbon treaty could be ratified after all prior to any new members being admitted to the European Union.

Turkey – another country seeking EU membership – made only limited progress this year in implementing necessary reforms. According to the European Commission, the Turkish government has failed so far to present any coordinated plan for those political and constitutional reforms deemed necessary. There was also only limited progress in reforming Turkey's government administration. In addition, the country's armed forces continue to have "considerable political influence."

Experts believe that it will be at least ten years before Turkey becomes a member of the EU. However, the decisive factor in determining whether Turkey will achieve its goal may not be its domestic reforms, but the outcome of the Lisbon treaty.