November 21, 2008: German news media paid special attention to the U.S. National Intelligence Council's special report titled "Global Trends 2025", which was released yesterday. American intelligence agencies compiled the report, which took one year to prepare and is released every five years.

According to the 120 page report, the international system resulting from World war II will hardly be recognizable by the year 2025. American economic and political clout will decline over the next two decades, with China and Russia as the most likely candidates competing for increased influence on the world scene. The United States will still be a superpower, but it will be less dominant and only one of several important countries at the center of world events. Reflecting this future trend, the U.S. dollar's role as the world's main reserve currency will continue to decline, with the dollar becoming a "first among equals."

The prediction about the dollar's decline comes as no surprise, since the euro has already established itself as a major reserve currency. No less than former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan has predicted that the euro will be a major competitor for the dollar.

Russia's vast energy resources will contribute to its increased influence. Alternative sources of energy will be much more developed than today, but America's intelligence agencies see the potential for tension over access to conventional sources of energy. War could even break out over energy, according to the report.

For all the time and effort put into the report, America's spy agencies failed to identify a major source of future competition – and conflict – for the United States – Europe. With its democratic institutions and its traditional ties to America, Europe doesn't seem to be much of a threat to anyone right now. That will change in the coming years, however.

Six times since 800 A.D. the Roman Empire has been revived in western Europe with the label "holy". A seventh and final resurrection lies ahead that will lead to a major shift in the balance of power. Events leading to that final union in Europe began with over 50 years ago with the Treaty of Rome.

Overlooking Europe as a potential source of tension is somewhat remarkable, since the intelligence report predicted possible conflict over access to energy resources. Europe's growing dependence on imported energy makes it one of the most likely candidates to full the prediction.