June 30, 2010: A report just days ago by "The Daily
Telegraph" appears to confirm a scenario pictured earlier this
year by Cardiff Business School's Dr Michael Arghyrou and John
Tsoukalas from Nottingham University. Their report, titled "The
Option of Last Resort: A Two-Currency EMU" was published in
February and predicted that a two-tier euro system would likely
be the only way to save the European Monetary System (EMS).
The Nottingham University academics envisioned a strong euro
currency used in core countries such as Germany with a "weak"
euro becoming the currency of those countries with weaker
economies and traditionally higher inflation. The European
Central Bank (ECB) would continue to control both currencies
under the system.
Dr. Arghyrou said: "If every other plan fails, the
two-currency proposal could ensure that the EMU is not
destroyed by countries forced
to abandon the euro and would help restore
market faith in the European integration project. Faith
needs to be restored in the euro and all parties are
agreed that something needs to be done. Bailing out
troubled countries might stretch the patience of taxpayers
in core countries to breaking point. Asking the IMF to
intervene will signal to the markets that the EMU cannot
cope with its problems." According to Dr. Arghyrou, a
two-currency solution would also mean that countries with
strong economies like Germany would not have to bail out
others.
The visionary two-tier euro system already has a name.
France, Germany, Holland, Austria and Finland could be the
intitial members of the "Nordic euro," with Greece, Spain,
Italy, Portugal and even Ireland comprising the "Latin euro" to
be used mainly by the current Eurozone's southernmost members
in the Mediterranean region. According to "The Daily
Telegraph," the two-tier euro arrangement is a second option
for the future of the eurozone, with the first option being
that the eurozone master the debt crisis in its current
configuration.
The two-tier option for the euro would be an alternative to
expelling weak members from the current euro zone. Expelling a
country from the euro enflame a lack of confidence in the euro
and push the whole euro region into a slump since European
banks in the northern part of the euro zone are so exposed to
debt in southern Europe. The consequences for the country
expelled from the euro currency would be even more
catastrophic.
The next big challenge for euro zone debt will come in
September, when Spain has to refinance €80 billion of its
foreign debt. According to an EU official, "If the markets
don't buy that will trigger a response by Germany and France."
A senior EU negotiator added: "No one knows where it is going
to end up. Only one thing is sure, the euro zone will change."
A restructuring of the euro zone could be the first step toward
a future "core Europe" with
implications for the fulfillment of Bible prophecy.